By Robert Inlakesh

The battle is over, but the war rages on. While some have jumped to say that Iran won or lost the war, this is way too early to say, especially as the stability of the ceasefire has not yet become clear. 

US President Donald Trump’s shaky social media ceasefire appears to have worked for now, creating a stalemate scenario where both Israel and Iran can claim victory. 

The Iranians were still firing missiles until the last moment of the ceasefire deadline, while the Israelis failed to answer. Now the situation remains tense and unstable, as the debate rages on regarding who “won”.

One day, Donald Trump was demanding that Iran adhere to the conditions of “unconditional surrender”; the next day, he was telling Israel not to violate a ceasefire he announced out of nowhere. 

Then, on Tuesday night, he posted a bizarre AI video featuring a “bomb bomb Iran” song, which contains lyrics about putting Ayatollah Khamenei “in a box” and turning Iran “into a parking lot”.

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It suffices to say that the US President is unhinged and unpredictable, changing his mind multiple times per day about any given subject. This leads us to a reasonable analysis of the ceasefire, whether it holds, and where the region is heading next.

When analyzing the conflict between Tehran and Tel Aviv, we must look at a number of dimensions that are at play and separate what occurred during the battle from the question of who will emerge as the ultimate victor.

An Israeli Retreat

The initial Israeli assault on Iran was launched without any credible imminent threat; therefore, it cannot be labelled “pre-emptive” in any sensible analysis. It launched its assault in the early hours of the morning, while the Iranians were still participating in negotiations with the United States to reach a new Nuclear Deal. 

In launching the assault, Israel managed to assassinate a number of Iranian generals and nuclear scientists, while temporarily knocking out the air defences and striking nuclear facilities. What they also did was strike densely populated residential areas and bring down apartment buildings, invoking widespread Iranian public outrage.

According to a number of military experts and analysts I had spoken to at the time, the kind of blow that Israel had dealt to Iran was likely going to take “2-5 days to recover from”. Israeli media even cited officials shortly after the attack, claiming that if their strikes worked, Israel had achieved against Iran in 6 minutes what it took over a week to do to Hezbollah. 

To everyone’s surprise, within 15 hours, Iran had replaced its fallen generals, gotten its air defences back online, and committed a devastating missile strike that caused direct impacts in central Tel Aviv.

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As the days went on, Israel’s direct attacks from its own territory decreased, and it began to rely on its vast, thousands-strong network of collaborators to carry out the majority of its operations inside Iranian territory. 

Iran then launched wave after wave of ballistic missiles, repeatedly striking Israeli air fields, military bases, and targets throughout various cities in occupied Palestine.

It appeared as if the Israelis had greatly miscalculated and Iran’s retaliation was beyond what had been expected; far from quick submission or regime change, it appeared as if the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was ready to fight a war of attrition. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated publicly that he refused to enter a war of attrition and would end the fighting soon.

Both Netanyahu and his Iranian asset, the son of Iran’s deposed Shah, put out calls pleading with the Iranian public to take to the streets in opposition to the government. The Shah’s son repeatedly released speeches and begged for revolution, claiming that the Iranian government was falling, none of which triggered a single demonstration inside Iran itself.

When Israel began to run out of options, Trump swept in to make threats against Iran. The American President then set a two-week attack deadline, before betraying his own words and deciding to launch a series of strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities after only 2 days. 

These strikes, according to both Iran and a leaked damage assessment report that was revealed by CNN, were failures and at best only managed to set back Iran’s nuclear program by a few months.

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Demonstrating supreme confidence, the IRGC continued its ‘Operation True Promise 3’ strikes using drones and ballistic missiles. It then decided on Sunday to hit the US’s al-Ubeid air base in Qatar, the home of CENTCOM in West Asia.

Suddenly, on Monday, after the Israelis appeared battered and out of game-changing options, the US President then issued his post on Truth Social announcing a ceasefire would take place within 6 hours. 

A range of reports then emerged claiming different times for the imposition of the ceasefire, eventually France24 quoted Iranian officials who claimed it would go into effect at 4 AM, Tehran time.

About 15 minutes after the alleged deadline, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi announced on X (formerly Twitter) that no ceasefire agreement was sent through to Tehran, but that if the Israelis were to halt their attacks, then so would Iran. The latest Israeli assault on the Iranian capital was the largest since the beginning of the war, but did end at 4 AM.

It did appear from Aragchi’s post that Iran would adhere to a ceasefire agreement, he then posted a follow-up tweet:

“The military operations of our powerful Armed Forces to punish Israel for its aggression continued until the very last minute, at 4 am. Together with all Iranians, I thank our brave Armed Forces who remain ready to defend our dear country until their last drop of blood, and who responded to any attack by the enemy until the very last minute.”

Then, news emerged that the 4 AM deadline had been extended and that it would take effect hours later. During the last two hours leading up to the new deadline, Iran launched 6 waves of ballistic missiles at Israel. In other words, Iran’s missiles landed last, and Israel did not respond.

Israel failed to achieve its stated goals, and so did the United States, while Iran shocked the entire world with their responses to the aggression against them.

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Winning The Battle, Losing The War?

Despite Iran’s ability to successfully repel the US-Israeli war of aggression and deal harsh blows, managing to achieve their stated objective of forcing Israel to submit, the ceasefire was not a written agreement, and they gained no concessions at all.

While Iran was seemingly winning and had the Israelis on the back foot, it decided to accept the US President’s non-binding, unconditional ceasefire demand. In doing so, it destroyed all the leverage it had created during the war that it could have used to attempt to ensure concessions and security assurances.

Essentially, this ceasefire depends upon the words of the same US President who greenlit an Israeli surprise attack during negotiations and who bombed Iran after two days, despite giving the Iranians two weeks and claiming he didn’t want to attack unless necessary.

This ceasefire was imposed by the aggressor, the United States, without a guarantee of anything. Also, it failed to solve the issue of Israeli aggression and expansionism in the region.

Although Israel failed to achieve its stated goals, it did succeed at attacking Iran’s senior leadership, civilian infrastructure and nuclear program, all while proving capable of getting the US to close the conflict when it became too costly for them. 

Israel is also claiming to its own population that it set back Iran’s nuclear program by years. Despite all the evidence pointing to the contrary, as Tehran was given more reason to pursue nuclear enrichment, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s approval ratings shot up, as did the popularity of the Likud Party.

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Iran is now claiming it has achieved deterrence, yet the Israelis are still using collaborators inside Iran to stir chaos and even launch drone operations. 

The Israeli prime minister can now claim to have attacked Iran and survived intact, while his ability to launch further aggression in the future is entirely dependent upon the United States. On the other hand, the genocide in Gaza now escalates as Israel turns its focus back on exterminating the Palestinian people, except now the Iran question is sidelined.

The Lebanon front is also still open, despite Hezbollah not responding since the ceasefire was imposed on November 27, 2024. The Lebanon-Israel ceasefire was actually conditional and the product of negotiations, yet the Israelis have violated it almost 4,000 times since.

By exiting the fight without securing so much as a single guarantee or concession, Iran will now continue to suffer under illegal US sanctions. In addition to this, the Gaza and Lebanon questions remain unsolved.

This is exactly the situation that pro-war think tanks in Washington—such as The Heritage Foundation, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), and the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD)—have long advocated for and which has now been brought to fruition. 

None of them mentioned immediate regime change, but they all sought for there to be an attack on the Iranian nuclear program, which they said would weaken Iran and lead to a gradual regime change.

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In the end, the Israelis are unlikely to leave Iran alone in the long run, and there is still a possibility that the ceasefire is simply a trick, designed to get the Iranians to lower their guard so that another surprise attack will become possible.

The war did not last 12 days; this regional war has been ongoing since October 7, 2023. The entire period of the war, Israel has been assassinating IRGC officials, openly stating its goal of dismantling the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance, and even bombing the consular segment of Iran’s embassy in Damascus. 

Iran won the battle, but the end came with no achievements other than a display of strength that truly shook both the Israelis and the US alike. However, whatever deterrence was achieved can be undone with one Israeli military operation, and we are back to square one. 

The battle is over, but the war rages on. While some have jumped to say that Iran won or lost the war, this is way too early to say, especially as the stability of the ceasefire has not yet become clear. 

Assuming that the ceasefire holds for long enough, if Iran acquires a nuclear weapon, this would represent a clear victory and provide it with undeniable deterrence. This move would prove that the US and Israel not only failed to destroy their nuclear program, but that their attacks only led to the bomb and didn’t eliminate the threat of it being made.

Another way that Iran could redeem itself is to threaten retaliation unless there is a ceasefire in Gaza and an exit of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon. Iran could also demand that sanctions be lifted, or it will act. These are highly unlikely, however, as they would have most likely already been conditions of a ceasefire. 

Failing these moves, the war will continue and lead to one of three ultimate conclusions in the long run: Regime change in Tel Aviv, regime change in Tehran, or a comprehensive ceasefire agreement. The fates of Gaza and Lebanon are inextricably linked to Iran’s fate.

It is too early to draw conclusions about where this is all going, but the war is not over; it has just cooled down on one front.

(The Palestine Chronicle)